The Weekend · Week 45 · 2–6 Nov 2026
Midterm fiscal restraint steepens the curve; 10Y from 5.36% to ~4.83-4.90%
Democratic control of Congress shifted the Treasury yield curve from fiscal-expansion to fiscal-restraint, pulling the 10Y from 5.36% to ~4.83-4.90% and widening 2Y-10Y to ~33bp. For positioning, the steep curve leaves the short end responsive to fiscal restraint, with the long end absorbing structural fiscal and AI-supply risk.
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Weekly Market Reports Research · 7 Nov 2026 · 4 reports · Yield Curve report free to read
Treasury curve · 6 Nov
| Tenor | Yield | w/w |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.02 | −4 |
| 3M | 4.19 | +3 |
| 2Y | 4.51 | −5 |
| 5Y | 4.64 | −7 |
| 7Y | 4.74 | −6 |
| 10Y | 4.86 | −8 |
| 20Y | 5.29 | −5 |
| 30Y | 5.26 | −5 |
Change in basis points, 30 Oct → 6 Nov. Source: US Treasury daily par yield curve (end-of-day data of record).
Curve slopes
| 3M–2Y | +32bp |
| 2s10s | +35bp |
| 10s30s | +40bp |
| 20s30s | −3bp |
Edge Gain this week · Yield Curve
Since Tuesday, 10-year Treasury yields fell 13 basis points to 4.83%, with strategists mixed on Democrats' newfound power for interest rates. Allspring's George Bory: Expect fiscal tightening in 2027 versus 2026 with little chance of new fiscal stimulus...
Scenarios for the week ahead · Yield Curve
- The Gridlock & Disinflation Oasis
- The AI Supply Crowding
- The Stagflationary Trap
In this issue
A near-certain December hike meets a steep Treasury curve
Yield Curve · Free
The 2Y yield holds at 4.51% and the 10Y at 4.86% as 2Y-10Y and 10Y-30Y slopes stay at +0.350% and +0.400%.
Every weekend: Rate themes ranked with their sources, viewpoints tested against the Treasury curve, the Edge Gain, and three scenarios each challenged by a devil’s advocate.
10 min · 13 sources
AI and Iran at Stage 4, post-midterm policy and higher-for-longer Fed at Stage 3
Market Outlook · Professional
Four narratives show AI and Iran at Stage 4 and post-midterm policy and higher-for-longer Fed at Stage 3, with US CPI on Nov 10 and PPI on Nov 13.
Every weekend: Agency and Journal narratives validated against market data, their cycle stage for timing, and trading opportunities ranked by confidence.
12 min · 23 sources
Lame-duck fiscal tail risk under the radar as gridlock and anti-AI themes build
Narrative Cycle · Professional
It maps fiscal tail risk, post-midterm gridlock, Iran de-escalation and oil risk-premium unwind, AI credit stress, and anti-AI rotation into India, Europe, cash, gold.
Every weekend: The leading narratives in Axios, Bloomberg and Reuters coverage, merged across agencies and placed on the seven-stage cycle.
16 min
Confirmation-led long memory names, SPY put spreads, and gold long calls frame the week
Traders News · Professional
Futures Desk and FXDesk outline confirmation-led long memory names, SPY put spreads, gold long calls, Brent no directional carry, DXY no event trade, and catalyst-driven rates.
Every weekend: Every instrument the Futures Desk and the FXDesk cover, their calls day by day, and the ideas both desks support.
15 min